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Setting aside protected areas is a key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss. Reserve effectiveness depends on the extent to which protected areas capture both known occurrences and areas likely to support the species. November 10, ; Accepted: December 20, ; Published: January 25, This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: Description and source of datasets used: Relative Age; This data is available from https: Accessed 1 March The Statewide Forest Resource Inventory SFRI is a program of information collection and analysis of Victoria's native forests that supports statewide planning and management. Native Vegetation - Modelled Extent ; This data is available from https: Modelled dataset of Native Vegetation and major water-based habitats, created by the Arthur Rylah Institute, and completed 15 July The dataset is a good interpretation of native vegetation extent including aquatic habitat , but must be used with care, given its modelled nature.

The dataset categorises the landscape into eight categories ranging from 'highly likely native vegetation' through to 'unlikely to support native vegetation'. Forest Management Areas; This data is available from https: FMA is the key layer for statewide overview of departmental forest management activities.

Fire history overlay of most recent fires; This data is available from https: Victorian Biodiversity Atlas; This data is available from https: Metadata for 2 of the environmental variables, distance to water and relief, from A. Moran-Ordonez Moran-Ordonez et al. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss is to set aside protected areas [ 1 , 2 ]. Conservation reserves are an essential part of any comprehensive biodiversity conservation strategy [ 3 , 4 ]. Worboys et al. Species distribution models and spatial prioritization algorithms have been key tools in identifying areas in need of protection and in reserve design itself e.

Spatial prioritization software, such as Zonation [ 10 ] and Marxan [ 11 ], can guide the design of protected areas when complicated trade-offs between species, or between human interests and biodiversity, exist [ 12 ]. However, very few studies have explored the adequacy of a reserve system for avoiding extinction of a particular species, despite the expansive literature on conservation reserve design [ 6 , 13 , 14 ].

The species has a highly restricted distribution, largely confined to montane ash forests within the Central Highlands region and habitat requirements consisting of old growth and mixed-age forest with hollow-bearing trees [ 15 ]. Persistence of remaining populations is threatened by logging and wildfires [ 16 — 18 ]. Special protection zones within forests broadly designated for timber and paper production were established to conserve the species [ 19 ]. Repeated field surveys have found the species not occupying areas damaged in that fire, irrespective of the fire severity [ 17 ].

Large, old, hollow-bearing trees, on which the species is critically dependent, are also declining rapidly throughout its range [ 21 , 22 ]. However, the study did not make spatially explicit recommendations about where reserve expansion should occur. Because there is significant interest in the degree to which the reserve system caters for other forest-dependent species, we included Greater Glider Petauroides volans , Yellow-bellied Glider Petaurus australis , and Sooty Owl Tyto tenebricosa , which vary markedly in life-history attributes, body size, diet and home range [ 23 ].

Although it is relatively abundant throughout its range, Greater Glider is a mostly solitary arboreal marsupial and widely considered to be sensitive to the impacts of forest fragmentation and disturbance [ 24 , 25 ]. The Sooty Owl has a large home range and it occupies hollows in large, old trees [ 26 ] that are consequently susceptible to disturbances [ 27 ].

The Yellow-bellied Glider has the largest home range of any species of arboreal marsupial in the study area [ 28 ]. We analysed how well each species would be represented in reserves arising from single- and multi-species focussed reserve design strategies. By integrating the result of a population viability analysis [ 18 ] with a spatial prioritization approach, we are able to assess both the adequacy and representativeness of existing and proposed reserve design options; something that is rarely attempted in conservation planning [ 29 ].

These forests provide habitat for a number of threatened and endemic species, but have also been a major source of pulpwood and sawlogs for various industries since the s [ 33 ]. Wildfire is the main form of natural disturbance in forests across this area [ 20 ]. The impacts of fire are variable, ranging from complete stand replacement after severe fires, to instances where the previous stand survives into the new stand [ 34 , 35 ]. Extensive salvage logging following the , and the fires resulted in sizable areas of even-aged stands [ 36 ].

The existing reserve network in the Central Highlands RFA was established over several decades, beginning in [ 30 ]. Species occurrence data i. We used only those records with better than 1km location precision and we removed records at sites where the presence was recorded prior to a fire at that site, since none of our species have been observed at burnt sites post-fire [ 17 ]. A suite of biologically-relevant environmental predictors were assembled for each species, which included information on forest type, ecological vegetation class EVC , disturbance history logging and fire , regeneration year, forest condition and ranking, where 0 indicated areas that contained no hollow bearing trees, 1 indicated areas with dead hollow bearing trees within regenerating forest, and 2 corresponded to areas with live and dead hollow bearing trees.

Using the presence-only modelling software Maxent [ 8 ] ver. Accounting for sampling bias in the spatial distribution of records is particularly important in methods that employ presence-only data [ 41 ]. We constructed models for each of the four target species using the full set of environmental variables. Models were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUC [ 43 ] and the AUC diff [ 44 ]. For example, if a presence and a background point are drawn at random from the data, the AUC can be interpreted as the probability that the model will have predicted a higher habitat suitability value for the presence location than the background.

AUC diff describes the minimum difference between the AUC of the training dataset and that of the test dataset. It gives an indication of whether the model is highly over-fitted. We converted models into maps of relative likelihood of occurrence for each species across the forested areas in the study region for subsequent use in the spatial prioritization process.

We used the program Zonation [ 10 , 45 ] ver. Zonation produces a hierarchical ranking of values over the landscape using a series of algorithms. Areas that contained habitat for rarer species tended to be ranked as highly irreplaceable, because habitat for those species is available in few or no other sites in the landscape. The existing reserve system was used in our analyses in two ways.

Second, the existing reserve system was ignored i. Zonation allows species to be weighted differently, altering the way in which the cells in the landscape are prioritized. Because there is no best way to weight features, we compared three numerical species weighting scenarios: This accounted for the importance of connectivity in a landscape and penalized highly fragmented areas, as all our species have been identified as vulnerable to habitat fragmentation in the study area [ 50 — 53 ].

We modelled two reserve scenarios based on the recommendations of the PVA by Todd et al. The PVA demonstrated that the smallest assessed threats of a This provided the basis for reserve scenario 1 modelled in this study. The largest threat modelled by Todd et al. This provided the basis for reserve scenario 2 modelled in this study Table 2. The results are expressed as a percentage of the total cumulative value for the region for each target species.

This provides a metric to determine whether the reserves are effective in capturing the areas with the highest habitat suitability values, for example, because reserves containing cells with higher values will not need to be as large as those reserves containing cells of lower values to achieve the same net cumulative value. The scenarios and their respective weights were compared against each other to determine the most efficient trade-offs between the species.

The variables of proportion of old growth forest in a km radius, temperature seasonality and minimum temperature of the coldest period were considered important variables for all target species. The 5 th percentile of minimum temperatures explained the most variance in Yellow-bellied Glider and Sooty Owl models; similarly, the Greater Glider distribution was largely driven by the minimum temperature of the coldest period.

Further details of relevant environmental predictors are in Table A in S1 File. The surrounding formal reserve system captured a larger percentage of the total cumulative value at Smaller percentages were found for the other target species. The Equal Weighting identified an additional 23, hectares and 95, hectares being added to the formal reserve system for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively.

The Linear Weighting identified an additional 22, hectares and , hectares for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. The Log Weighting identified an additional 22, hectares and , hectares for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. The equal weighted scenario resulted in the largest reserve expansion in area under scenario 1 and the linear scenario resulted in the largest area for reserve expansion in area under Scenario 2 see text. The reserve scenarios for the Log, Linear and Equal Weighting Zonation solutions increased the cumulative value percentage captured within the reserve system.

The log weighting scenarios were marginally less efficient in capturing the modelled occupancy distribution for the Greater Glider, Yellow-bellied Glider and Sooty Owl, compared with the Linear and Equal Weighting scenarios Table 5. The least difference between weighted solutions for scenario 1 was for the Yellow-bellied Glider, where there was a 0. Assessing the design of reserve systems is a key task in conservation science [ 1 , 46 ].

Critical to such assessments is determining how well a protected area conserves a given target taxon and then quantifying how well other species might be conserved by that reserve e. Our approach integrated a systematic analysis of conservation area requirements for ensuring threatened species persistence with spatially explicit recommendations about where to provide extra protection that balances the needs of multiple threatened species; evaluating both conservation adequacy and representativeness together.

We found an acute trade-off between conserving key areas for Leadbeater's Possum and conserving habitat for other forest-dependent species. This arises because their habitat requirements do not strongly overlap. Similar trade-offs are apparent for each of the species pairs under different reserve expansion options and preferences for species weights Table 5. However, a key strength of our approach is that it allows quantification of the implications of such an approach for other species representation in the reserve system.

Our approach to the analysis provides a transparent way to communicate those trade-offs to planners and the public. Spatial prioritization does not, on its own, provide guidance on how much area should be conserved to ensure persistence of a target species. Population viability analyses can provide these area targets, but PVA alone does not provide spatially explicit recommendations for where additional protected areas should be located. Together, however, as we have shown in this paper, these two approaches can provide informed, species-specific targets for conservation areas and determine where in the landscape they are best placed.

Due to the difficulty in obtaining informed conservation area targets, many Zonation studies have relied on arbitrary area thresholds for spatial prioritisation, with only a few studies providing a rationale for setting these thresholds based on analysis of persistence e. By using PVA to set a biologically-relevant conservation area target for spatial prioritization, there is greater certainty in the effectiveness of targets in ensuring the persistence of species of interest.

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Setting aside protected areas is a key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss.

Luis Seoane Lopez. The Violinist. Artist Name: Luis Seoane Lopez Title: The violinist Signature Description:

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Institute of Space Sciences. LISA Pathfinder. Refereed papers in For accessing the list directly in ADS follow this link. Nombre d'entrades: Fermionic Casimir densities in anti-de Sitter spacetime. Elizalde, E. Numerical simulations of black-hole binaries and gravitational wave emission. Interacting Supernovae and Supernova Impostors: SN ip, is this the End?

Use the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more. Existing computationally efficient methods for penalized likelihood generalized additive model fitting employ iterative smoothness selection on working linear models or working mixed models. The paper develops the first computationally efficient method for direct generalized additive model smoothness selection. It is highly stable, but by careful structuring achieves a computational efficiency that leads, in simulations, to lower mean computation times than the schemes that are based on working model smoothness selection.

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Luis Seoane Lopez. The Violinist. Artist Name: Luis Seoane Lopez Title: The violinist Signature Description: Serigraph Image Size: Unframed Condition: In overall good condition with no evidence of tears, rips, repairs, paint peelings or losses, Some wear and slight wrinkles on the margins, light aging spots. Artist's Biography: His first exhibition was held in On his return to Galicia in , he became a leading figure within the movement to revive Galician culture. Other exhibitions were made about his painting, graphic work, posters and illustrated books. Among the most relevant of these, stands out the exhibition titled "Buenos Aires, Scenarios of Luis Seoane" October-December at the Luis Seoane Foundation, which recreated the city and its surroundings of Seoane in the Argentine capital. At the same time a comprehensive book-catalog was published with the most complete inventory available on the murals of the artist in Buenos Aires more than 50 , the most extensive chronology made to date, several texts by Argentine and Galician authors, and all the works that made up the exhibition. Published in Spanish translation:

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